All Intensive Purposes

When I first started following congressional races closely, in 1988 or so, I remember that a good number of the competitve seats were in the Carolinas. But these were districts that had been voting for Reagan, and yet still sent Democrats to Washington. They were becoming Republican districts, and their apparent "competitiveness" reflected a deadlock between the incumbency advantages and moderation of their Democratic rep, and the ideological claims of the Republican challenger. It sometimes took a few tries before the Republican broke through, and the Republican takeover in 1994 was really the sound of the last dominoes falling. Today and in the years ahead, the competitive districts will be those historically Republican Northeast and Midwest districts that have been voting for Democrats for President. For now, Republicans like Chris Shays, Nancy Johnson and Mark Kirk hold on, either they will step aside or they will eventually lose, and at that point, the districts will cease to seem "competitive" but will become the Democratic districts they are meant to be, and the "moderate Republican" will become extinct.

// posted by t.s. @ 8:32 PM